When DOGE 2.0 Meets Political Chaos
William L. Kovacs
DOGE stands for the Department of Government Efficiency, a creation of President Trump.
This five-part series describes the DOGE and its relationship to the laws of political chaos, a brief history of the predecessors to DOGE, the long-overdue need to implement the hard work done by prior DOGEs, a recognition that real reform will require devolving many federal domestic powers to the states; and a recognition by DOGE that if it sincerely wants to shrink the federal government quickly it must recommend that Congress grant the state of Utah’s request to transfer the unappropriated federal western lands to the states.
DOGE’s initial aims were to revolutionize the federal government’s efficiency and size. Imagine DOGE as a Rubik’s Cube, with government departments and regulations as its squares. Trump has convinced one of the brightest minds, Elon Musk, to get all the same colors on the same sides. Yet, the various predecessors of DOGE have littered Washington with many great expectations and recommendations that remain dashed dreams. The scope and uncertainty of Musk’s role add an intriguing element to this ambitious endeavor.
So, what is this DOGE? The original concept was for DOGE to be a temporary government-approved, private-sector group of volunteer geniuses that advised the Office of Management and Budget on driving waste, fraud, and abuse (“WFA”) out of government. On January 20, 2025, however, President Trump issued an Executive Order reorganizing and renaming the U.S. Digital Service as the “United States DOGE Service Temporary Organization” (“ DOGE 2.0”). The temporary organization will be headed by an administrator (not Musk) who reports to the White House chief of staff. The organization expires on July 6, 2026.
The EO requires the head of each federal agency to establish a DOGE 2.0 team of at least four employees within the agency to work with the Administrator.
The EO is unclear as to its functions. Section 3(b) states it will be dedicated to “advancing the President’s 18-month agenda;” however, the agenda is not defined. Section 4 of the EO mandates DOGE 2.0 to commence a Software Modernization initiative to improve the quality and efficiency of government-wide software network infrastructure. The order does not mention Musk’s previously stated goals to roll back government headcount, spending, and regulations.”
With the confusion over its role and Elon Musk’s perceived influence in restructuring and reducing the federal government, it can be concluded that DOGE 2.0 has the freedom to act as an unrestricted government-approved lobbying organization that recommends restructuring to the White House. This role will continue until President Trump or the courts restrain Musk.
Musk will be under pressure to perform a miracle. Musk owns Space X, a space exploration company that functions as NASA’s recuse mission. Musk can send a rocket to a space station, return it to Earth, and perfectly park it in the confines of its launchpad.
Musk can accurately calculate trajectories and outcomes in space travel by following the laws of physics and mathematics. In government reform, however, Musk will quickly discover that the government operates under the chaos theory.
The chaos theory is the foundation of congressional action. The chaos theory explains the behavior of dynamic systems susceptible to initial conditions. While tiny errors between measurements taken closely in time do not make a significant difference, these minor errors between the first and last measurements over a long period of time can be so substantial as to prevent an accurate forecast of anticipated behavior. Such a massive miscalculation is explained as the “Butterfly effect,” in which a butterfly flaps its wings in one location, and all the insignificant changes in the winds over long distances cause the formation of a hurricane half a world away.
For Musk to succeed, he must deal with Congress, one of the planet’s most chaotic but essential institutions. Musk will not be able to calculate a starting point since every member of Congress is a potential measurement disruptor. Musk and DOGE 2.0 will inevitably recommend changes that eliminate the ‘legal privileges’ given to many citizens while leaving the privileges of others intact. This disparity of treatment will multiply the uncertainty of its success. Dealing with the interplay of political, social, cultural, and economic forces is a matter of common sense and political IQ, not math and science tests.
The inherent conflict within the language of the EO and the disconnect between political sense and a math and science test raises the question of how successfully DOGE 2.0 can navigate the chaos in Congress. It will be a real test of genius vs. chaos.
The essence of political chaos. Any chance of an outcome that benefits the nation must start with the essence of political chaos. Members of Congress represent constituents; as such, they do not hold power as individuals; they have power as representatives of the people and trustees of the Constitution. DOGE 2.0 seems to believe it represents a revolutionary cause to dismantle government.
Let’s face it: For presidents who want to spend more money than they have or cut taxes to benefit parts of society, the universal “pay-for” is reducing WFA in government. Presidents and DOGE-style commissions utter those words instead of “abracadabra” to produce the illusion that they have special knowledge to make the impossible happen.
Focusing on WFA distracts the attention of presidents and Congress from the real issue. Yes, the federal government is too big and powerful and is mismanaged. The fundamental question is, who should reform it under our government? The U.S. legal system comprises over 3000 separate criminal offenses in 53 titles of the U.S. Code, 23,000 pages of federal law, over 215,000 regulations, hundreds of millions of words, and an incomprehensible 7.7-million-word revenue-raising system. Beyond complexity, political chaos is made more unstable as Presidents regularly superimpose their demands over the intent of Congress by issuing hundreds of Executive Orders and twisting regulations beyond what Congress intended. The federal government is in a constant state of chaos.
Unfortunately, the elites use political chaos to persuade the government to grant them privileges that are not given to all. It is impossible to eliminate the chaos since every change produces more change. The clearest example of privilege is the federal tax code, a lobbyist-created money laundering scheme. Several of my articles have argued for a return to the 1913 four-page, including instructions, Form 1040. It taxed all income the same in the same income bracket, with there being very few deductions in the code. While it is the same for everyone, it is utterly abhorrent to the wealthy since their privileges would be limited to the same privileges given to all.
So, what reform can DOGE 2.0 propose that could become law? It depends on how it proceeds. If Musk acts as a corporate chieftain, barking pronouncements at the masses or as a lobbyist for business interests, reform will fail miserably. To succeed in reform, DOGE 2.0 must persuade Congress and a nation 80% distrustful of the federal government that their recommendations will produce a level playing field.
First, Musk and President Trump should publicly state their guiding principles for the reform effort. These guiding principles should have been stated in the EO. The principles must be more than mouthing “efficiency” and “transparency” or modernization of software. Are the principles of deficit reduction, tax fairness, regulatory relief, shrinking government, a return to the free market, or federal workforce reduction? Or all of the above and more? How will the DOGE 2.0 make its decisions to achieve its goals? How will it measure success? Will it listen to the public? Most importantly, will its decision-making include Congress, a co-equal branch of government with the constitutional responsibility for raising and spending money and legislating? Or will the President and the DOGE 2.0 try to wrest control from Congress by impounding appropriated funds and trying to jam several Executive reorganizations through Congress?
Yes, working with Congress and being open to citizen comments is an excruciating process that will be utterly boring to the “high-IQ” revolutionaries. President Trump should not waste the time of Musk and the staff geniuses to do another government audit that identifies WFA. Many WFA audits have been done, the reports rendered, and an enforcement structure is in place. If President Trump truly wants WFA reform, he should immediately implement the many excellent reports filed by previous commissions, GAO, CBO, and Inspector Generals over the years. A rapid implementation effort could save taxpayers tens of billions, perhaps hundreds of billions, but these WFA efforts will only make a small dent in the national debt. The highly respected Peterson Institute noted, “Curbing waste, fraud, and abuse sound[s] great but would not produce significant savings.”
The Republican majority in Congress and the President must think more deeply than WFA audits, firing civil servants, and shrinking agencies. A serious restructuring of the federal government will require devolving many of the federal domestic powers to the states, creating a simple and fair income tax, cuts in spending, selling assets to pay down the debt, and returning unappropriated western lands to the states. These unappropriated lands give the federal government unreasonable control over the economies of many western states. These changes will allow the federal government to focus on its essential responsibilities—national defense, international commerce, and the economy. Of most importance, as the federal government devolves domestic powers to the states, it must repeal the laws establishing those powers. Only by repealing the laws giving the federal government power can the government shrink. If the laws giving the federal government its power are not repealed, the federal government, at some future time will fund those laws to regrow the government.
If President Trump sincerely wants a smaller federal government, he should work with the Republican Congress to reestablish genuine federalism in the U.S. Otherwise, DOGE 2.0 is only entertainment to distract citizens as it accumulates more power in the federal government.
William L. Kovacs, author of Devolution of Power: Rolling Back the Federal State to Preserve the Republic. It received five stars from Readers’ Favorite. His previous book, Reform the Kakistocracy, received the 2021 Independent Press Award for Political/Social Change. He served as senior vice president for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and chief counsel to a congressional committee. He can be contacted at wlk@ReformTheKakistocracy.com
Meta description: DOGE is Trump’s Dept. of Government Efficiency. What happens to its best-laid plans to eliminate federal waste, fraud & abuse when it meets Washinton chaos?
Keyword: DOGE
Tags: Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Government Efficiency, Department of Government Efficiency, Waste, Fraud & Abuse, Congress, Executive power
