By Don Rasmussen
It is a big week in presidential politics. Carly Fiorina announced her campaign on Skype while sitting alone in a dark room and giving Hillary’s announcement the Mystery Science Theater 3000 treatment.
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Ben Carson also announced with an awkward and surreal variety show, featuring a gospel choir, back-flipping dogs, The Solid Gold Dancers and a special appearance by the ghost of Chuck Barris. At least now we know what he is really running for…host of the new Muppets Show. He even announced that he didn’t want to be a politician. Millions of homosexuals and gun owners breathed a sigh of relief.
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More importantly the evangelical primary is now underway. In addition to Ben “Choose Straight” Carson and Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum will soon join the fray. Mike Huckabee has now officially jumped in as well and starts out as the frontrunner, followed by Cruz and Carson with Santorum in the rear.
It is important to understand that there are two distinct strains of Christianity within the GOP. Cruz represents a sort of personal faith view that venerates the Constitution, natural rights, and individual responsibility while Huckabee and Santorum represent evangelical paternalism or as you more likely know it, compassionate conservatism. I prefer the more accurate term Christian Socialism. This strain of Christian thought is purely political and holds that the mechanisms of power ought to be used to enhance Biblical principles and extend ideology through government force. If that sounds slightly totalitarian, yup. It is.
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It doesn’t rise to the pronouncements of The Left that this type of Christian is the equivalent of the American Taliban, but the premise that the function of government is to evangelize and patronize under threat of state violence is scary enough not to want to go down any part of that road. It leads to policies like No Child Left Behind and expanded welfare because wasting billions on ineffective programs that lock people in ignorance and poverty is the equivalent of compassion in political world.
Unfortunately that is exactly the road that Presidents Huckabee and Santorum will take the country down in the universes where they win…not that they believe in the multiverse, but it is their best chance. In this world neither has a realistic shot at the helm, but as they spar over a significant portion of the Republican primary electorate, the battle will help shape the overall dynamics of the race and the direction of evangelicals within the GOP.
The opportunity cost of a vote for Santorum is a vote for not Cruz. A vote for Cruz is a vote for not Huckabee and so on. A divided evangelical vote strengthens the non-evangelical candidates and dilutes their influence on the process. In 2008 Huckabee captured eight states, in 2012 Santorum won eleven, but both were contained to the Deep South and Midwest and neither had to contend with the other. There just aren’t enough of their voters in most states. The narratives of both men are written and hardened by many years in the public eye. Neither will be president, but the evangelical primary could help determine who does take the prize.
It will also provide the fodder with which the media will paint all Republicans as retrograde kooks unprepared for life in the 21st century. Huckabee and Santorum may be tax and spend, big-government liberals, but don’t expect that to keep the MSM from using their faith-based worldview as a wedge on social issues for low information voters.
The challenge for candidates with broader appeal is to avoid being painted with that brush while simultaneously drawing enough of the Christian right to contribute to a broader winning coalition. This appears to be the strategy of Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. The candidate that finds that sweet spot will likely be the nominee.
