Trump Nomination Could Result in Democratic Landslide
In a set of polling released by Quinnipiac on Wednesday, Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican field in the swing-states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. However, perhaps more notable is that against all three Democrats tested, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, Trump is far behind, indicating the likelihood that he would be unable to compete in a general election.
Trump trails in Florida by 14 to Biden, and 5 to Clinton and Sanders. He loses in Ohio by 11 to Biden, 1 to Clinton and 3 to Sanders. Finally, Trump is behind in Pennsylvania by 10 to Biden, 2 to Clinton and 5 to Sanders. In all instances, Trump polled worse than all four of the other Republicans tested (Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio). He also has a -18 favorability rating in Florida, a -24 favorability rating in Ohio and a -20 favorability rating in Pennsylvania. Lastly, when asked by voters if Trump is honest and trustworthy, his scores were underwater by 17, 16 and 17 respectively in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Although Trump is far from being the only candidate whose numbers are in the negatives, he faces a problem possibly unique to only he and Hillary Clinton: because their name identification numbers are so high, very few voters “haven’t heard enough” about them to form an opinion. In other words, these numbers are likely static rather than fluid, and are therefore unlikely to change anytime soon.
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It remains extremely far-fetched that Donald Trump will become the GOP nominee (or even win a single primary). Nonetheless, Republican voters need to quickly awake from the hypnosis which has seemingly overtaken them during the past several months. Not only has Donald Trump repeatedly endorsed big-government policies which are antithetical to the principles of liberty, he has also shown that he would be unable to win in a general election.
Each cycle, political parties are seemingly faced with the choice of nominating someone who best represents their values or someone who can win in November. It has become clearer every day that Trump would provide the Republicans with neither option.
Rather than introducing concrete policy proposals, he has resorted to insults and broad generalizations which have no plausible application to the current state of the government. While perhaps a more humble individual would admit his or her faults, Trump’s bluster and arrogance prohibits him from understanding the absurdity of his rhetoric.
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Trump is a grand paradox: he is someone who lauds “toughness” and “telling it like it is,” but demands that any dissent or criticism of him be immediately shut down; he calls himself sometimes a “conservative” and sometimes a “liberal”; sometimes a Democrat and sometimes a Republican. If a party is to anoint someone as their standard bearer, they need to know what to expect, as it can have long-lasting effects on the image of that political party.
If there were ever a political party in need of careful rehabilitation of both its image and its policies, it would be the Republican Party, in light of the Presidency of George W. Bush and the electoral losses of John McCain and Mitt Romney.
With that in mind, as much as Donald Trump claims to be an “outsider” and “different,” he is an outsider in name only. His policies and demeanor threaten to set the party back, both in public opinion and in election results. In 2016, if the GOP wants to both win and change the tide of American political thought, it must return to the roots of its ideology, and that includes the guarantees of personal freedom, individual liberty and express limits on governmental authority.
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