Please don’t be angry, but it’s time we talked about something that may be particularly difficult for you to read. It’s time we discuss what is in all likelihood now inevitable: the end of Rand Paul’s presidential campaign.
I know Rand Paul’s supporters are die-hards and many will scoff at this assertion. They will point to the recent Republican Liberty Caucus endorsement, precinct counts in Iowa, and recall Rick Santorum’s late rally to win Iowa in 2012. All of this is true; it just sadly doesn’t matter.
While I hope to be proven wrong, there are facts I can no longer ignore:
- Paul’s campaign never caught on with conservatives– which is necessary to win the GOP nomination
- His attempts to court conservatives alienated many of his libertarian supporters
- His campaign has felt disjointed and scattered
- Paul has been polling between 1-5% for months, nearly getting nixed from the previous debate
- He has now been cut from the next debate to be hosted by Fox Business
- With a senate re-election battle to fight, at some point soon Paul will have to soberly assess his situation
While notions of Rick Santorum’s comeback in 2012 to win Iowa may help longtime Paul supporters rest easier at night, a big part of Santorum’s rally was his debate performance. Paul not only won’t be in the next debate, he has declined to appear in the undercard debate. Such a move is foolish as at least the undercard would give him a chance to get his points across on television in a format that would permit him more speaking time than the previous debates have.
But watching the Paul campaign as the lights grow dimmer has been painful for this longtime supporter. He has gone from a man who would resist media bait and ad hominem attacks to a candidate who insinuated that Ted Cruz might not be eligible for the presidency. To be clear, Cruz’s mother was a US citizen when he was born and Cruz is a natural born US citizen. A man as bright as Rand Paul undoubtedly knows this and he even looked uncomfortable when he teased that Ted Cruz is “eligible to be Prime Minister of Canada.”
Now Paul has declared a “war” on the media after failing to meet Fox’s debate criteria. I love Rand Paul, anybody who has read me long enough will know that. But the thinning of the heard at this stage of the process is necessary. If it were any other candidate getting kicked off, Rand Paul supporters would be cheering; because everyone knows these overcrowded debates are awful. Are Paul fans crying for Carly Fiorina, who has also been cut from the main stage?
A debate with too many people on the stage just creates a lot of noise. We have had several jammed packed debates; voters want to hear from the candidates who have a reasonable shot of winning. Polling numbers reflect public opinion, public opinion reflects market demand, television studios and their sponsors respond by giving the public more of the candidates they like and less of the ones they don’t.
It’s the free market at work!
Honestly, I have been a vocal supporter of Rand Paul’s presidential ambitions since 2012, long before he was ever running. I saw him speak at a rally for his father in Meredith, New Hampshire, and I was instantly won over. He was so articulate; a born leader and messenger for liberty. But it seems as though it is not yet his time.
Watching him “boycott” the undercard debate is just too painful. In Steinbeck’s Of Mice and Men, George has to shoot his best friend Lenny because he knows that if he doesn’t the crowd of people who are out for his blood will tear him apart in ways far worse. So George kills Lenny out of compassion– out of love. So I authored this piece; not to dash your dreams or condemn Rand Paul, but to offer kind words at a time when it seems like the end is near.
Rand Paul is a valuable ally to liberty and badly needed in the US Senate. He faces a re-election battle in Kentucky and needs to realistically assess his options. Should he continue to expend time, money, resources, and risk negative media attention to run a marginalized presidential campaign or should he focus on the long game and keeping his senate seat?
For a presidential candidate, Paul is young. He could still very well be president one day. I hope that he is, as I truly believe he would make a fine leader for this country. But no matter what happens, the importance of his message and his value to the cause of liberty will continue for long to come.
