The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) would raise United States incomes by an estimated $131 billion a year, according to a January study by D.C.-based think tank The Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Annual exports will increase by $357 billion, or 9.1 percent, in the country by 2030, according to the working paper. The study found, however, if the deal is pushed back, the U.S. could lose billions of dollars.
“Given these benefits, delaying the launch of the TPP by even one year would represent a $77 billion permanent loss, or opportunity cost, to the U.S. economy as well as create other risks,” the report reads. “Postponing implementation will give up gains that compound over time and defer or foreclose new opportunities for the United States in international negotiations.”
The group claims “unexpected political challenges or competing trade projects” could further increase costs due to delays in its implementation.
Over the course of the trade deal’s 15-year implementation, the TPP is unlikely to affect the overall employment numbers in the nation. It is expected to increase wages and move people into more productive industries, according to the pro-trade group’s findings.
“This kind of movement between jobs and industries is what economists refer to as ‘churn,’ and most kinds of productivity growth cannot occur without it taking place,” the think tank wrote. “For perspective, 55.5 million American workers changed jobs in this way in 20144—so the transition effects of the TPP would represent only less than 0.1 percent increase in labor market churn in a typical year.”
While other countries would financially benefit from the deal, the U.S. would be the greatest beneficiary in terms of wages, according to the study.