Top 5 Possible Post-Trump Directions for the GOP

4. Civil War

Rather than either the first or second scenario presented, this involves both the alt-right and the establishment losing. In this instance, most likely, the establishment retakes the party, but rather than populist voters and alt-right politicians coalescing behind the decision, they decide to branch off and begin their own party (e.g. “America First or “Patriot” party) to perennially play spoiler. The opposite scenario could also be true, wherein the alt-right takes over and former establishment Republicans form an independent “Conservative” party, like Bill Kristol unsuccessfully attempted this cycle.

The likely result of this would be that neither is able to win many elections at all (with the exception of some small pockets throughout the country), and the Democrats slowly gain super-majorities in the House, Senate, and Governorships. The most recent example in American history would be when Democrats in the 1940s, 50s, and 60s split over segregation, resulting in the formation of the “Dixiecrats.” Though the Democrats finally reformed as one in 1972, the infighting was enough to lose the party several winnable elections and hinder their growth moving forward.