Scott Walker Is Gone… Who’s Next?

Walker’s Exit is One of the Biggest 2016 Shake-Ups Thus Far

by Josh Guckert

On Monday, Scott Walker suspended his Presidential campaign after only 10 weeks as an official candidate. Walker had been considered a potential 2016 candidate for a considerable amount of time due to his 3 Wisconsin election victories over the span of 4 years, and experienced high poll numbers for months. He had been long considered one of the most conservative candidates in the race, along with Rand Paul and Ted Cruz.

Walker had been in the top 3 choices in the RealClearPolitics average of polls every day between February 24 and August 17 before toppling all the way down to a tie for 10th place following a showing of 0% in the most recent CNN/ORC poll.

Walker becomes the second GOP candidate to suspend his campaign, after Rick Perry on September 11. During his announcement, Walker seemed to suggest that his decision was due at least in part to the rise of Donald Trump, as Walker stated that other candidates should suspend their campaigns “so that the voters can focus on a limited number of candidates who can offer a positive, conservative alternative to the current front-runner.”

It is difficult to tell where one-time Walker supporters will go following the end of their first choice candidate’s campaign. However, this somewhat unexpected announcement could perhaps lead to more contenders dropping out before the next debate on October 28 in Boulder, Colorado.

In addition, early indications seem to suggest that CNBC will not have a “secondary” debate, meaning that unless candidates Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki and Rick Santorum can somehow break into the top ten by the cutoff date, their candidacies will be effectively over. Also, John Kasich and Chris Christie have seen their numbers remain stagnant during the bulk of the campaign, and are in danger of being pushed out of the race.

As more candidates end their Presidential ambitions, the voter coalitions will become clearer and the debates on the ideas dividing the Republican Party will come to light. In the end, it seems inevitable that the argument will be (again) one of the moderate Establishment versus the more conservative grassroots.

Seemingly every election is supposedly a “transformational” one for the country, and that is yet to be seen in 2016. However, one can say with much more certainty that this election will be of the utmost importance for the future of the Republican Party. Since Mitt Romney‘s loss in 2012, the Party has split into numerous sects and has seen more arguments among its members than it has in a generation. It is perhaps for this reason that 17 distinct voices wished to be included in the primary process.

Now, still more than 4 months ahead of the Iowa Caucuses, the choices for this election are becoming more defined. There remains: the Establishment, which has controlled the Party for decades and has rarely taken advantage of its victories to make effective change; the populist fringe, which has few concrete ideas other than anger and xenophobia; and the conservative wing, which now more than ever has the power to overtake the Republican Party and finally shrink an over-sized government grows larger by the second.

Every time that a candidate withdraws, the overlaps become fewer and the top candidates become more at odds with each other. While a long primary may follow, it will no doubt in the best interest of the Republican Party to undergo this transformation in the public eye. Only one person will be selected as the standard-bearer of the Party, and that same person will influence whether the Republican Party continues to fester in mediocrity or comes to re-invent itself as a principled alternative to the Democrats which encompasses Americans of all backgrounds.