Here’s why Reagan trailing in Poll before 1980 Win doesn’t prove “Rigging”

by Brian Nichols

Upon my scanning of social media in the final weeks of this tumultuous election season, I have found many Trump supporters beginning to realize the inevitable: Trump is likely going to lose, and it probably won’t even be close.

But instead of accepting this reality and trying to move forward, be it through electing pro-liberty candidates down the ballot and the like, they have started promoting the ideas that:

A. The election is rigged

B. Polling is wrong

With regards to point B, I have recently found this charming little meme that tries to reinforce the idea that the polling is wrong pop up on my news feed that I feel needs to be addressed:

As someone with a B.A. in Political Science and years spent reading and analyzing polls, this meme bothers me on a personal level, as it not only ignores basic statistics, but is a slap in the face to those whose careers are dedicated to presenting factual, accurate information with regards to our elections and political landscape.

(DISCLAIMER: Yes, there are those who have an agenda in media and polling. However, a majority of pollsters and analysts depend on presenting accurate information for their livelihoods, meaning they would be placing themselves in a disadvantageous position in presenting skewed data and analysis.)

So, let’s dive into the reality of this meme and speak some truths, shall we?

1. Carter didn’t lead Reagan for much of the campaign. From May 1980 forward, polling averages actually showed that Reagan possessed a lead over Carter until the end. The poll this meme is referring too is actually one single Gallup poll that was taken on October 26 in 1980, indeed two weeks before the election. However, one poll does not equate a polling average, as seen here:

2. Reagan was a much better debater and candidate than Carter, and it is widely agreed by political scientists and historians that it was Reagan’s debate performance against Carter that caused Reagan to surge in polling averages, thus increasing his lead against Carter throughout the end of the campaign and through the election. Trump, on the other hand, is a horrendous debater, and if anything, his past two debate performances have caused his polling numbers to plummet.

3. This is the exact same meme that Republicans used in 2012 to claim that Romney could defeat Obama, as there were a few outlying polls that showed Romney with a small lead against Obama (a lead that was within the margin of error, mind you). Actually, Rush Limbaugh cited this specific 1980 poll and meme as well back in 2012 (note: Limbaugh was dead wrong). But using an outlier instead of aggregate polling averages has been proven ineffective and not a means to accurately predict the outcome of an election.

So, to make this image crystal clear, here is a side-by-side comparison of the 1980 and 2016 aggregate polling averages:

It’s incredibly important to make sure that voters understand the reality of polling and elections. They’re not just wild and crazy numbers and methods done to pick a winner. There is science and statistics that are incredibly important for voters to understand and address. Otherwise, the notion that I mentioned in point A, “the election was rigged!” becomes a narrative instead of trying to promote better candidates in the next election to avoid such disastrous outcomes in the future.

So, moral of the story: Trump 2016 is not Reagan 1980.

You’re welcome.