Johnson Finally Included on First Line of Polling, but It Doesn’t Look Good

By Brett Chandrasekhar

Gary Johnson has recently been saying that if he were included on the first line of polling, he would be at 20% right now.

Unfortunately, this is not the case. For example, in the most recent Monmouth poll (8/25-8/28), the first question asked is:

If the election for President was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party?

After the question, it states in parentheses “NAMES WERE ROTATED.”

This means two things:

1) Gary Johnson was included in the first line of polling.

2) The name order was randomized, meaning no candidate had an unfair advantage for being presented first.

What did Johnson get as a result? 7%.

Related: NEW POLL: 52% of Americans Want Gary Johnson in Debates

Likewise, in the most recent CNN/ORC poll (9/1-9/4), the first question asked is:

Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party’s candidates, Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party’s candidates, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld as the Libertarian Party’s candidates and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka as the Green Party’s candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for? (RANDOM ORDER)

Once again, Johnson was included in the first line and the name order was randomized. What did he get as a result? Once again, 7%.

If you’re wondering why there’s a drop in the polls relative to his average (8-9%), the main contributing factor is that most organizations are now using “Likely Voters” rather than “Registered Voters.” Johnson actually scores 8% in the Monmouth poll and 9% in the CNN/ORC poll for Registered voters. However, both numbers are still far off the 15% debate cutoff and even farther off from Johnson’s 20% claim.

In conclusion, it’s true that many polling agencies don’t include Johnson at all. It’s also true that out of those that do, many don’t include him on the first line. Finally, it’s true that the wording of polling questions heavily favors the two major parties.

However, it’s not true that putting Johnson on the first line would have the magical effect of raising his poll numbers significantly. At best, it would have a small effect, and at worst, it wouldn’t matter at all.

Watch the full FOX News clip below: