With Four Weeks to Go, Still Plenty to Come in Iowa

Even as Caucuses Approach, Much Can Yet Happen

by Josh Guckert

The Iowa Caucuses are now less than four weeks away, as one of the most interesting campaigns in several cycles shapes up for its first contest.

Donald Trump has led most Iowa polls since the beginning of August, with his lead being challenged by several of his competitors including Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio and most recently Ted Cruz.

Though conventional wisdom now suggests that Cruz will win the Caucuses, recent history shows that there is nothing for sure, even this close to voting.

Most notably, in 2012, Rick Santorum was in seventh place at 5.1% in the Iowa RealClearPolitics average. Santorum would go on to pick up nearly twenty points to shock Mitt Romney and become the Republican Establishment’s most successful opposition throughout the race.

Meanwhile, the leader of the pack at the same time, Newt Gingrich, was nearing 30%. He would go on to earn less than half of this percentage on his way to a fourth-place finish in Iowa. Most remarkably, he would have another comeback just before South Carolina to win the state, only to plummet just before the Florida primaries in the face of hundreds of attack ads run by the Romney campaign.

So who, then, has the best chance to repeat what Santorum did in Iowa in 2012? Undoubtedly, it is Rand Paul. As Rubio has reached a ceiling with his lack of grassroots appeal, Carson has dropped after his own burst and Jeb Bush has seemingly conceded the state, Paul seems positioned to finish in the top four at worst.

Having an organization paralleled only by Cruz and Rubio, Paul recently announced his plan to mobilize 10,000 college students to attend the Iowa Caucuses on his behalf. Whereas during the past two cycles, Iowa students were still at home on winter break during the time of the caucuses, class will be in session in 2016.

Meanwhile, front-runner Donald Trump has faced serious questions about his ground-game, particularly in Iowa. As some voters have trepidation about his seriousness as a Presidential candidate, a lack of necessary organization will only exacerbate this problem.

This leaves only Ted Cruz, begging the question: how much longer can Cruz maintain his recent surge in Iowa? At some point, he will plateau; he can only hope that his fall is not as drastic as others who have been in the same position.

Nonetheless, Cruz could yet win Iowa, but at what cost? Needless to say, wins in Iowa did not produce Presidents Huckabee or Santorum. Even as much as he may claim it to be so, Cruz has no more appeal to New Hampshire voters than either of the previous two Iowa Caucus winners. His incessant pandering to Evangelicals and war-hawks to win Iowa could very well cost him in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, even with a second-place finish, Paul would be well-positioned for another good performance in New Hampshire, where his libertarian views are quite common. Even if Cruz is to then get a win in South Carolina, Paul could easily position himself to win in Nevada and several more caucus states.

What does this all mean? Forget about the so-called experts and pundits: Iowa is not an end, but a beginning. With an unprecedented field of twelve GOP candidates, there is far too much time to prematurely crown a winner. Once Iowa has concluded, the pretenders will be separated from the true contenders, and this process will continue through the early states of New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Once a more refined and serious field has taken hold, Republican primary voters will get a chance to decide what their party will look like in the coming years.