Turkey Erupts in Violence– What it Means for the Region and the US

A truce that has lasted for more than two years between Kurdish nationalists and the government of Turkey has deteriorated into violence, threatening to further destabilize a region already teetering on the edge of chaos.

Members of the Kurdish Workers’ Party, a socialist militant group known by its Kurdish acronym, PKK, launched a series of bombings across eastern Turkey on over the weekend, culminating with two attacks killing 14 police officers on Tuesday.

The attacks spurred military action from Turkey, as security forces crossed into Iraq in “hot pursuit” of PKK terrorists. Air raids on Kurdish positions in Qandil, Basyan, Avashin, and Zap, killed 35 rebels early Tuesday, according to Andadolu news agency.

In response to the terrorist attacks, crowds of angry Turks attacked the headquarters of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish HDP Party. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutolu has urged calm.

The violence refuels a conflict more than 30 years old. Over 40,000 people have been killed since the PKK launched its campaign for an independent Kurdish state within Turkey. A truce had been arranged in 2013, after a suicide bombing by suspected ISIS militants near the Syrian border shifted both sides attention to a shared enemy.

What it means for the region

Escalating violence between Kurdish forces and the government of Turkey could be very destabilizing for the region. In addition to the threat of widespread violence, the conflict ends a truce which was instrumental in combatting ISIS.

While not all Kurds are sympathetic to the PKK, the desire for a Kurdish within Iraq is high. The Kurds felt betrayed by the coalition backed Iraqi government as they refused to crack down on anti-Kurdish Shia militias. Kurdish Intel Chief Masrour Barzani even insinuated that Baghdad was giving unofficial support to Shia militias.

As with Turkey, Kurdish forces have attempted to set aside their difference with Iraqi Shias in order to combat the threat of ISIS. The problem is that the PKK’s conflict with Turkey could fracture that alliance as well. The Shiite-led Iraqi government does not wish to see a Kurdish state, either.

Now instead of Turkey working with the Kurds and Shia militias to combat ISIS, we could see Turkey fighting with some Kurds against ISIS, while working with Iraqi forces against another faction of Kurds. Factions vying against factions allied with factions against other factions—Mid East politics at its finest.

The threat is not only that Turkey and northern Iraq will erupt into even greater chaos, but that such factional conflicts will splinter alliances needed to combat ISIS.

What it means for the US

The US is in a precarious position when it comes to Kurdish nationalism. While the US remains allies with Turkey, policy advocates within the US have long tinkered with the idea of dividing sectors of Iraq. The theory is that only a three-state solution would allow the country that is now Iraq to live in peace. In this solution, the northern territory of Iraq would be a Kurdish state that bordered southern Turkey.

While the US government has never expressed support for a portioned Iraq, outgoing US Army Chief of Staff, General Raymond Odierno, recently earned rebuke from Iraq’s Prime Minister by musing that a partition may be the only solution in Iraq.

The US government designates the PKK as a terrorist organization and stands with Turkey in its opposition to the socialist militant group. But what happens when Kurdish nationalism—the desire to not be ruled by others, spreads to other Kurds? The crucial US-Kurdish alliance in Northern Iraq could disintegrate.

Even worse, it could be just the destabilization ISIS needs.