As the November 8 presidential nears closer, the Republican Party must come to the reality that it is about to suffer a serious defeat. Not only will Donald Trump likely lose in landslide fashion, he also risks hurting down-ballot Republicans. This could ultimately result in a loss of the Senate and a significant cut into the Republican majority in the House. The Republican National Committee will be faced with some serious decisions, beginning with whether to reelect Reince Priebus in January. More importantly, the party will have to decide which direction their party will take to ensure victory in 2018, 2020, and onward. Here are the top five possible directions they could take, from most-likely to least-likely.
1. Establishment Takeover
While not pleasant to think about, this is the most likely scenario. After taking a beating in the general election, the party establishment will glare at the grassroots and point out that “if they had only listened,” Hillary Clinton would have been defeated and the Senate would have been retained. The party could easily transition after some of the “Tea Party Senators” elected in 2010 are purged from their elected positions following only one term. The GOP could also create mechanisms in their delegate process to prevent any “insurgent” candidates from succeeding in 2020.
This scenario would be not much different than in 1968, when after selecting the ultra-conservative Barry Goldwater in 1964, the party turned to former vice president and 1960 nominee Richard Nixon in order to attain victory. While using some of the blueprint from the 1964 election to win (like the “Southern Strategy”), Nixon and others like George Romney and Nelson Rockefeller returned the GOP to being a “center-right” party for at least a decade.
2. Double-Down on the Alt-Right
Another scenario is that following Trump’s defeat, the alt-right and populist fringe of the Republican Party retain their stronghold so firmly that it cannot be shaken. Of course, this portion of the party is much larger than Donald Trump; he is merely the manifestation of nearly a decade of shortsightedness by GOP leadership. In this case, Trump would remain a figurehead of admiration for Republicans. He and the alt-right could instigate this situation by successfully blaming the establishment for the loss since they did not give support to Trump in the election.
In this hypothetical, those who supported Trump in his anti-immigrant and borderline-racist rhetoric could see their profiles elevated, with someone of that nature receiving the nomination in 2020. The GOP would then slowly shrink as minority voter blocs become larger. The bad news for the Republican Party is that if they take this route, it almost guarantees that the party will no longer exist in a few decades. The best historical example of something similar happening to the Republican Party is when Joseph McCarthy gained support due to the “Red Scare” in the 1950s, nearly leading to him being selected as the GOP vice presidential nominee in 1952.
3. Libertarian Pivot
This year was supposed to be the coming to fruition of a great “libertarian moment.” However, as it turned out, most of the people who supported Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012 weren’t libertarian at all, but rather “anti-establishment.” This resulted in a strange set of circumstances wherein many self-proclaimed “libertarians” supported the massively authoritarian Trump. Nonetheless, the many libertarian and libertarian-leaning members of the GOP could capitalize on the vacuum created by the destruction of Trump.
For as much harm as Trump has caused toward the advancement of liberty within the GOP, he has also perhaps planted the seeds for the future blooming of some libertarian ideas. For example, he has often criticized nation-building (particularly in Iraq) and the misconduct of the Federal Reserve in manipulating currency. Moreover, he has been quietly the most pro-gay Republican nominee in American history, allowing the GOP to distance itself from its very homophobic past. This scenario would (unfortunately) result in basically the end of the Libertarian Party, as it will have exhausted its usefulness. However, those like William Weld and Gary Johnson could find themselves again with influence in the GOP. The closest historical example is when Barry Goldwater and conservatives briefly overtook the party in 1964 before Ronald Reagan overtook the party for the long-term in 1980.
4. Civil War
Rather than either the first or second scenario presented, this involves both the alt-right and the establishment losing. In this instance, most likely, the establishment retakes the party, but rather than populist voters and alt-right politicians coalescing behind the decision, they decide to branch off and begin their own party (e.g. “America First or “Patriot” party) to perennially play spoiler. The opposite scenario could also be true, wherein the alt-right takes over and former establishment Republicans form an independent “Conservative” party, like Bill Kristol unsuccessfully attempted this cycle.
The likely result of this would be that neither is able to win many elections at all (with the exception of some small pockets throughout the country), and the Democrats slowly gain super-majorities in the House, Senate, and Governorships. The most recent example in American history would be when Democrats in the 1940s, 50s, and 60s split over segregation, resulting in the formation of the “Dixiecrats.” Though the Democrats finally reformed as one in 1972, the infighting was enough to lose the party several winnable elections and hinder their growth moving forward.
5. The Party Disbands
The least likely (but also possible) scenario is that following three consecutive presidential losses, the Republican Party slowly evaporates until it is no more. By the time the 2020 (or if not that early, at least 2024) election begins, the Libertarian Party has grown in stature enough that it is now the primary competitor to the Democratic Party. While most Republicans are voted out due to lagging party membership and organization, others convert to Independent, and some more liberty-friendly members switch to the Libertarian Party.
This would also likely result in the broadening in the metaphorical ideological “umbrella” of the Libertarian Party. While currently disdained by many, the mantra of “fiscally conservative, socially inclusive” comes to define the party platform. However, the central tenets of individual freedom remain in tact, with new members still needing to pledge to stand against initiating aggression in order to become part of the LP. The last time anything this dramatic has happened in American would likely be when the Whig Party was slowly overtaken by the Republican Party, with politicians like Abraham Lincoln making the switch.