Supreme Court Lays Blueprint for GOP Victory in 2016

Decisions Create Opportunity for Much Needed GOP Re-Branding

by Josh Guckert

This week, the Supreme Court released two of its most important decisions in years: King v. Burwell, which saved the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act from near-death by allowing the program to continue in states which had not set up essential “healthcare exchange” programs; and Obergefell v. Hodges, which ruled that states may not prohibit same-sex couples from receiving marriage licenses.

While at first blush, each of the decisions may seem like a blow to conservatives and the Republican Party, the truth is that both could turn out to be a hidden blessing for the GOP.

In the case of “Obamacare” (or “SCOTUScare” as Justice Antonin Scalia anointed it), a majority of Americans continue to have reservations about the law. The RealClearPolitics average indicates that the law is disfavored by a split of 51% to 44%. As costs continue to rise and realities of the regulations come to fruition, grassroots will mobilize more against the law, and those who speak out the most against the ACA will benefit handsomely. More likely than not, the prospect of destroying the law will excite many more voters than those who wish to retain the status quo. This includes independents, who in the most recent poll indicated at least a desire for the law to changed, if not repealed entirely, with 55% favoring the former and 31% the latter.

The GOP missed a grand opportunity to capitalize on the general disdain for the law in 2012, nominating arguably one of the architects of the law as its presidential candidate. Even worse, many others on the Republican side had previously advocated for a public option when it had been proposed by the Heritage Foundation in the early 1990s, very much weakening arguments against that same policy.

In 2016, with plenty of new faces in the race, the GOP has an opportunity to nominate a candidate with a “clean slate” in regards to free market healthcare. Hopefully, an adequate replacement for Obamacare can be articulated so that government’s role in our medical decisions can be minimized.

As for the gay marriage decision, in bringing an end to the debate, the Supreme Court gave both Republican candidates and voters a reason to finally move on from the issue. While previously, it would have been nearly impossible for the GOP to merely make a 180 degree turn on the topic, the ruling allows the Party to slowly distance itself from one of the issues which has most precluded it from recruiting both young and independent voters. If they wish to, the Republican Party could even adopt the libertarian position of getting government out of marriage completely; a stance which could draw new voters in its own right without losing supporters of “traditional marriage.”

The reactions to the ruling from various GOP contenders seemingly show voters who is serious about moving on and accepting changing times. For example, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Lindsey Graham, and Marco Rubio all criticized the Court’s decision on procedural grounds, but also made some reference to the ruling now being the “law of the land.” Others refused to give ground, including Scott Walker, who shockingly proposed a Constitutional Amendment to define marriage as between one man and one woman. Noticeably, Rand Paul has thus far remained silent on the issue, as he is in all likelihood wisely weighing the correct words. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton, who has thus far seemingly based her campaign on a theme of “diversity,” will have much less to offer to gay and lesbian voters as she incessantly panders.

The Supreme Court has set the stage for the GOP to take back the White House. It is now the Republicans’ turn to make the decision on which candidate it will choose to take up the challenge. It would therefore be wise to nominate a candidate with a distinct vision from what voters have seen from the GOP in recent years. If the Party wishes to truly re-make its image, there is no better opportunity than in 2016.