A Confederacy Of Dunces: The State of The Presidential Race

by Don Rasmussen

It has been a fascinating and fast-moving week in presidential politics. The Hillary spiral has continued unabated. While talking heads marvel at her durability in head-to-head polling and within the Democrat field, the underlying erosion on honesty and trustworthiness is a troubling sign for her candidacy. The latest Quinnipiac poll in Iowa has just 43% of voters believing in her veracity. Her strength in top line polling reflects name identification and the perception of inevitability. This is pretty much the same trajectory as her 2008 collapse, if not earlier. I’m reminded of an SNL skit from that race, “It was always our plan to lose Pennsylvania!”

New allegations relating to Libya and her crazy-ass UFO-truther buddy Sidney Blumenthal along with word that her Pentagon emails will be released before voters go to the polls are just the tip of the cigar. Don’t expect things to get better for her.

If the problems with her personality and ethics weren’t bad enough, it leaked this week that former San Antonio mayor Julian Castro has been tapped and vetted as her running mate. Not only does this give the GOP an extra year to build an opposition research book and drive up his negatives, it deprives the campaign of an exciting announcement to energize the base closer to Election Day. No part of Clinton World is looking inevitable or even particularly competent. Word even broke this week that Bill once predicted Martin O’Malley would be president someday. When it rains…

On the Republican side, former Texas Governor Rick Perry announced that he will be making an announcement on June 4. From a libertarian perspective, Perry may be the strongest option behind fellow Texans Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. You’re welcome America. You might as well benefit from Texas awesomeness until the EPA pisses us off enough to re-found the Republic.

Perry arguably appeals to a broader cross-section of the GOP making his chances of getting traction well within the scope of possibility if he can overcome the “oops” narrative. Back in 1999 George W. Bush also looked like a sensible conservative so… grain of salt.

Speaking of Bushes, Jeb ran headlong into trouble last week when he repeatedly fumbled the Iraq question. In a matter of days he went from “Yes I would have invaded” to “I don’t do hypotheticals” to “That question dishonors the troops” to “Fine! No!”

Bush also announced that he is pulling out of the Iowa Straw Poll which requires discipline as she is a sexy, sexy beast.

Actually he was worried about getting Pawlenty-ied. Tim Pawlenty’s 2012 run ended when he was embarrassed at the straw poll by Michelle Bachmann. As for Bachmann I understand she has parlayed her 2012 performance into day drinking and yelling at things. Kidding. She is actually working at her husband’s clinic busily confusing gullible homosexuals.

At any rate, scuttlebutt around The Party is that Bush donors are concerned and Marco Rubio’s star is rising. Rubio helped himself with the neo-conservative crowd last week with a rousing speech at the Council on Foreign Relations. The “Rubio Doctrine” sounds a lot like Dubya but that group feeds on a constant diet of militant idealism and world domination so not a big surprise. We’ll have to wait and see if primary voters are as anxious for a return to the 2000s as Rubio is hoping.

Chris Christie is making a similar calculation. Not only is he promising endless war on foreigners, he has promised to bring the full weight of the federal government down on marijuana smokers and the states that have legalized it. Apparently he is undaunted by polls showing that his policy ideas are as unlikable as his personality. He also called for means-testing Medicare. That may be objectively right, but angering rich, white elderly people isn’t real bright if you want to win a GOP presidential primary.

This week former serious candidate Bobby Jindal also announced the formation of an exploratory committee for some reason. Sad news though as Bush’s UN ambassador John Bolton announced that he will not be seeking the presidency thus rendering my Kaiser Wilhelm mustache jokes moot. Thank goodness Lindsey Graham IS running so my repertoire of effete Napoleon jokes is still operable. Ohio Governor John Kasich also looks poised to jump. He brings with him high approval in a key state, but will be the only candidate ever thrown out of a Grateful Dead concert. No, seriously. Google it.

Finally this week, the Republican National Committee provided networks with some clarity on their debate expectations. The cast will be kept to twelve candidates as a practical matter despite the perceived depth of the field. The criteria will likely be a combination of fund-raising, polling and, in Lindsey Graham’s case, not using a milk crate to see over the podium. For his part, Graham assured media that just being included was “FAB-U-LOUS!!!”

On a personal note I want to congratulate MPP Texas and their hard-driving state director Heather Fazio for the huge movement this session in the Texas legislature on marijuana-related issues. I hope Rand Paul’s policy shop is reading Rep. David Simpson’s Christian case for drug reform. This issue isn’t about stoners or even sick people, it’s about a culture and politics that respects individual autonomy and personal responsibility. Marijuana decriminalization is the tip of the spear, not the end game.

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